AN OBJECTIVE METHOD OF FORECASTING WINTERTIME PRECIPITATION IN NORTHEAST COLORADO

Abstract

General aspects of the problem of forecasting precipitation in northeast Colorado are discussed and the forecast area described. A precipitation day for the area is defined on the basis of the number of cooperative weather stations reporting precipitation. Variables with prognostic value in determining upslope flow and, consequently, precipitation in northeast Colorado, are discussed. To obtain a forecasting method, the variables are combined by graphical correlation techniques. The method is tested on independent data; the results are consistent with those obtained on the original data and show a skill score above chance of 50 percent.