FORECASTING LOCAL SHOWERS IN FLORIDA DURING THE SUMMER

Abstract

July and August precipitation records for 5 years from 10 stations within 25 miles of Miami are analyzed to obtain an indication of the frequency of summer showers in that area. Several meteorological parameters for forecasting showers are examined. A quasi-objective method is developed which can be used to forecast the proportion of the Miami area which should expect showers during a 24-hour period 9 to 33 hours in advance. Several parameters are listed which were tested, but did not improve the forecasts. Verification results using independent data are included.