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    Agreement between Observed Rainfall Trends and Climate Change Simulations in the Southwest of Europe

    Source: Journal of Climate:;2000:;volume( 013 ):;issue: 017::page 3057
    Author:
    González-Rouco, J. F.
    ,
    Heyen, H.
    ,
    Zorita, E.
    ,
    Valero, F.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3057:ABORTA>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The lowest spatial scale at which current climate models are considered to be skillful is on the order of 1000 km because of resolution and computer capabilities. The estimation of the regional changes caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols therefore is problematic. Here a statistical downscaling scheme is used to study the relationship between large-scale sea level pressure and regional precipitation in southwestern Europe, both in observed data and in outputs from a general circulation model (GCM) forced with increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results indicate that the GCM does reproduce the main aspects of the large- to local-scale coupled variability. Furthermore, these large- to local-scale relationships remain stable in the scenario simulations. The GCM runs predict increases of advection of oceanic air masses to the Iberian Peninsula that will produce a slight decrease of precipitation amounts in the north coast and the opposite effect in the rest of the territory, with values that could reach 10 mm decade?1 in the south. In the homogenized historical records, the obtained pattern of change is very similar. These results support estimations of future regional trends simulated by the GCM under future emission scenarios.
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      Agreement between Observed Rainfall Trends and Climate Change Simulations in the Southwest of Europe

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    contributor authorGonzález-Rouco, J. F.
    contributor authorHeyen, H.
    contributor authorZorita, E.
    contributor authorValero, F.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T15:52:09Z
    date available2017-06-09T15:52:09Z
    date copyright2000/09/01
    date issued2000
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-5552.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4195645
    description abstractThe lowest spatial scale at which current climate models are considered to be skillful is on the order of 1000 km because of resolution and computer capabilities. The estimation of the regional changes caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols therefore is problematic. Here a statistical downscaling scheme is used to study the relationship between large-scale sea level pressure and regional precipitation in southwestern Europe, both in observed data and in outputs from a general circulation model (GCM) forced with increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. The results indicate that the GCM does reproduce the main aspects of the large- to local-scale coupled variability. Furthermore, these large- to local-scale relationships remain stable in the scenario simulations. The GCM runs predict increases of advection of oceanic air masses to the Iberian Peninsula that will produce a slight decrease of precipitation amounts in the north coast and the opposite effect in the rest of the territory, with values that could reach 10 mm decade?1 in the south. In the homogenized historical records, the obtained pattern of change is very similar. These results support estimations of future regional trends simulated by the GCM under future emission scenarios.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAgreement between Observed Rainfall Trends and Climate Change Simulations in the Southwest of Europe
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume13
    journal issue17
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<3057:ABORTA>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage3057
    journal lastpage3065
    treeJournal of Climate:;2000:;volume( 013 ):;issue: 017
    contenttypeFulltext
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