ENSO Influences on Agriculture in the Southeastern United States

Abstract

The influence of El Niño?Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on crop production in the southeastern United States was studied to identify crops that are vulnerable to ENSO-related weather variability and therefore likely to benefit from application of ENSO-based climate forecasts. The historical (1960?95) response of total value and its components (yield, area harvested, and price) to ENSO phases and quarterly sea surface temperature anomalies (SST) in the eastern equatorial Pacific was analyzed for six crops (peanut, tomato, cotton, tobacco, corn, and soybean) in four states (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina). ENSO phase significantly influenced corn and tobacco yields, the areas of soybean and cotton harvested, and the values of corn, soybean, peanut, and tobacco. ENSO phases explained an average shift of $212 million or 25.9% of the value of corn. Canonical correlation analysis identified significant responses of corn, soybean, and cotton yields, and peanut value to SST across the region; and of peanut and tobacco yields, and tomato and soybean values in particular states.