Interdecadal and Interannual Variability in the Northern Extratropical Circulation Simulated with the JMA Global Model. Part I: Wintertime Leading Mode

Abstract

Interdecadal and interannual atmospheric variability in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere is investigated using an atmospheric GCM. The model used for this research is a T42 GCM version of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA-GSM89) global model. The 34-yr integration from January 1955 to December 1988 has been performed employing the real observed near-global SST condition. To estimate internal variability of the tropical and extratropical atmospheres, another 34-yr integration was conducted using the seasonally varying, climatological SST without interannual variability. Using the rotated EOF analysis, the authors made an intercomparison of the Pacific/North American (PNA) wintertime teleconnection patterns prevailing in the observed and simulated extratropical atmospheres in the two experiments. The polarity of PNA derived from the real SST experiment is indicative of definite interdecal variability. particularly an abrupt change of the midlatitude circulation regime over the North Pacific in the 1976/77 winter. By contrast, this mode, deduced from the climatological SST control run, has intermonthly and short-term interannual variability but no pronounced interdecadal variability. It is strongly suggested that the anomalous SST forcing exerts strong influence on the PNA mode and modulates its amplitude, and as a consequence, longer-tem variability, such as interdecadal variability, has appeared in the time sequence of this mode. It is confirmed from the T42 GCM experiment that the interdecadal variations of the wintertime extratropical atmosphere over the North Pacific are substantially controlled by the anomalous SST forcing in the Tropics, and that, in particular, the tropical forcing is primarily responsible for the abrupt change of the midlatitude circulation regime in the 1976/77 winter.