Statistical Explanation for Trends in Extreme Summer Temperatures at Phoenix, Arizona

Abstract

A reanalysis of the same Phoenix daily minimum and maximum temperature data examined by Balling et al. has been performed. As evidenced by substantial increasing trends in both the mean minimum and maximum temperatures, this area has experienced a marked heat island effect in recent decades. Balling et al. found that a statistical model for climate change in which simply a trend in the mean is permitted is inadequate to explain the observed trend in occurrence of extreme maximum temperatures. The present reanalysis establishes that by allowing for the observed decrease in the standard deviation, the tendency to overestimate the frequency of extreme high-temperature events is reduced. Thus, the urban heat island provides a real-world application in which trends in variability need to be taken into account to anticipate changes in the frequency of extreme events.