Detection of Forced Climate Signals. Part II: Simulation Results

Abstract

This paper considers some tests of the procedures suggested in Part I on the detection of forced climate signals embedded in natural variability. The optimal filters are constructed from simulations of signals and natural variability in a noise-forced energy balance model that explicitly resolves land-sea geography and that has an upwelling-diffusion deep ocean. Filters are considered for the climate forcing of faint sunspot signals and for the greenhouse warming problem. In each case, the results are promising in that signal-to-noise ratios of unity or greater might be achievable. Rather than conclusive arguments, them exercises are meant to bring out key aspects of the detection problem that deserve the most attention and which parts of the procedure are most sensitive to assumptions.