Model Simulations of the Competing Climatic Effects of SO2 and CO2

Abstract

Sulfur dioxide-derived cloud condensation nuclei are expected to enhance the planetary albedo, thereby cooling the planet. This effect might counteract the global warming expected from enhanced greenhouse gases. A detailed treatment of the relationship between fossil fuel burning and the SO2 effect on cloud albedo is implemented in a two-dimensional model for assessing the climate impact. Although there are large gaps in our knowledge of the atmospheric sources and sinks of sulfate aerosol, it is possible to reach some general conclusions. Using a conservative approach, results show that the cooling induced by the SO2 emission can presently counteract 50% of the CO2 greenhouse warming. Since 1980, a strong warming trend has been predicted by the model, 0.15°C, during the 1980?1990 period alone. The model predicts that by the year 2060 the SO2 cooling reduces climate warming by 0.5°C or 25% for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) business as usual (BAU) scenario and 0.2°C or 20% for scenario D (for a slow pace of fossil fuel burning). The hypothesis is examined that the different responses between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and the Southern Hemisphere (SH) can be used to validate the presence of the SO2-induced cooling. Despite the fact that most of the SO2-induced cooling takes place in the Northern Hemispheric continents, the model-predicted difference in the temperature response between the NH and the SH of ?0.2°C in 1980 is expected to remain about the same at least until 2060. This result is a combined effect of the much faster response of the continents than the oceans and of the larger forcing due to CO2 than due to the SO2. The climatic response to a complete filtering of SO2 from the emission products in order to reduce acid rain is also examined. The result is a warming surge of 0.4°C in the first few years after the elimination of the SO2 emission.