Greenhouse Gas–induced Climate Change Simulated with the CCC Second-Generation General Circulation Model

Abstract

The Canadian Climate Centre second-generation atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a mixed-layer ocean incorporating thermodynamic sea ice is used to simulate the equilibrium climate response to a doubling of C02. Features of the simulation include the use of higher model resolution than previously for studies of this kind, specification of ocean heat transport for the open ocean and under sea ice, incorporation of information on vegetation and soil type in the treatment of land surface processes, and the inclusion of a parameterization of variable cloud optical properties. The results of the simulation indicate a global annual warming of 3.5°C with enhanced warming found over land and at higher latitudes. Precipitation and evaporation rates increase by about 4%, and cloud cover decreases by 2.2%. Soil moisture decreases over continental Northern Hemisphere land areas in summer. The frozen component of soil moisture decreases and the liquid component increases in association with the increase of temperature at higher latitudes. The simulated accumulation rate of permanent snow cover decreases markedly over Greenland and increases slightly over Antarctica. Seasonal snow and sea ice boundaries retreat, but local decreases in planetary albedo are counteracted by tropical increases, so there is little change in the global average. Large-scale patterns of change are found in mean sea level pressure accompanied by a general decrease in short-term variability.