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    Modeling Interannual Variations of Summer Monsoons

    Source: Journal of Climate:;1992:;volume( 005 ):;issue: 005::page 399
    Author:
    Palmer, T. N.
    ,
    Branković, Č
    ,
    Viterbo, P.
    ,
    Miller, M. J.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0399:MIVOSM>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Results from a set of 90-day integrations, made with a T42 version of the ECMWF model and forced with a variety of specified sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, are discussed. Most of the integrations started from data for 1 June 1987 and 1 June 1988. During the summer of 1987, both the Indian and African monsoons were weak, in contrast with the summer of 1988 when both monsoons were much stronger. With observed SSTs, the model is able to simulate the interannual variations in the global-scale velocity potential and stream-function fields on seasonal time scales. On a regional basis, rainfall over the Sahel and, to a lesser extent, India showed the correct sense of interannual variation, though in absolute terms the model appears to have an overall dry bias in these areas. Additional integrations were made to study the impact of the observed SST anomalies in individual oceans. Much of the interannual variation in both Indian and African rainfall can be accounted for by the remote effect of the tropical Pacific SST anomalies only. By comparison with the effect of the Pacific, interannual variability in Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic Ocean, or extratropical SSTs had a relatively modest influence on tropical large-scale flow or rainfall in the areas studied. Integrations run with identical SSTs but different initial conditions indicated that for large-scale circulation diagnostics, the impact of anomalous ocean forcing dominated the possible impact of variations in initial conditions. In terms of local rainfall amounts, on the other hand, the impact of initial conditions is comparable with that of SST anomaly over parts of India and Southeast Asia, less so over the Sahel. While this may suggest that a nonnegligible fraction of the variance of month-to-seasonal mean rainfall on the regional scale in the tropics may not be dynanamically predictable, it is also quite possible that the disparity in the apparent predictability of rainfall and circulation anomalies is a reflection of model systematic error.
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      Modeling Interannual Variations of Summer Monsoons

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    contributor authorPalmer, T. N.
    contributor authorBranković, Č
    contributor authorViterbo, P.
    contributor authorMiller, M. J.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T15:15:41Z
    date available2017-06-09T15:15:41Z
    date copyright1992/05/01
    date issued1992
    identifier issn0894-8755
    identifier otherams-3879.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4177055
    description abstractResults from a set of 90-day integrations, made with a T42 version of the ECMWF model and forced with a variety of specified sea surface temperature (SST) datasets, are discussed. Most of the integrations started from data for 1 June 1987 and 1 June 1988. During the summer of 1987, both the Indian and African monsoons were weak, in contrast with the summer of 1988 when both monsoons were much stronger. With observed SSTs, the model is able to simulate the interannual variations in the global-scale velocity potential and stream-function fields on seasonal time scales. On a regional basis, rainfall over the Sahel and, to a lesser extent, India showed the correct sense of interannual variation, though in absolute terms the model appears to have an overall dry bias in these areas. Additional integrations were made to study the impact of the observed SST anomalies in individual oceans. Much of the interannual variation in both Indian and African rainfall can be accounted for by the remote effect of the tropical Pacific SST anomalies only. By comparison with the effect of the Pacific, interannual variability in Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic Ocean, or extratropical SSTs had a relatively modest influence on tropical large-scale flow or rainfall in the areas studied. Integrations run with identical SSTs but different initial conditions indicated that for large-scale circulation diagnostics, the impact of anomalous ocean forcing dominated the possible impact of variations in initial conditions. In terms of local rainfall amounts, on the other hand, the impact of initial conditions is comparable with that of SST anomaly over parts of India and Southeast Asia, less so over the Sahel. While this may suggest that a nonnegligible fraction of the variance of month-to-seasonal mean rainfall on the regional scale in the tropics may not be dynanamically predictable, it is also quite possible that the disparity in the apparent predictability of rainfall and circulation anomalies is a reflection of model systematic error.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleModeling Interannual Variations of Summer Monsoons
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume5
    journal issue5
    journal titleJournal of Climate
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005<0399:MIVOSM>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage399
    journal lastpage417
    treeJournal of Climate:;1992:;volume( 005 ):;issue: 005
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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