Evidence of Secular Variations in Indian Monsoon Rainfall–Circulation Relationships

Abstract

Detailed correlation analysis of the all-India monsoon rainfall and mean sea-level seasonal pressure at Bombay (19°N, 73°E) up to three lags on either side of the monsoon wren during the last 30 years (1951?80) indicates a systematic relationship. The winter-to-premonsoon (March, April, May?Deceinber, January, February; MAM?DJF) seasonal pressure tendency at Bombay shows a correlation coefficient (CC) of ?0.70 (significant at 0.1% level) with the Indian monsoon rainfall. Further examination of this relationship over a long period of 144 years (1847?1990), using sliding correlation analysis, reveals some interesting features. The sliding CCs were positive before 1870, negative during 1871?1900, positive in the years 1901?40, and again negative later on, showing systematic turning points around the years 1870, 1900, and 1940. In light of other corroborative evidence, these climatic regimes can be identified as ?meridional monsoon? periods during 1871?1900 and after 1940, and as ?zonal monsoon? periods before 1870 and during 1901?40, similar to the observation of Fu and Fletcher. It is also observed that the relationship between Bombay pressure and Indian monsoon rainfall becomes dominant when the ENSO variance in Bombay pressure is high and falls apart when the ENSO variance is small. The paper contains a listing of the long homogeneous data series on all-India monsoon rainfall and monthly MSL pressure at Bombay for the period 1847?1990.