Relations between Precipitation and Shallow Groundwater in Illinois

Abstract

The statistical relationships between monthly precipitation (P) and shallow groundwater levels (GW) in 20 wells scattered across Illinois with data for 1960?84 were defined using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. A lag of 1 month between P to GW was the strongest temporal relationship found across Illinois, followed by no (0) lag in the northern two-thirds of Illinois where mollisols predominate, and a lag of 2 months in the alfisols of southern Illinois. Spatial comparison of the 20 P-GW correlations with several physical conditions (aquifer types, soils, and physiography) revealed that the parent soil materials of outwash alluvium, glacial till, thick loess (≥2.1 m), and thin loess (>2.1) best defined regional relationships for drought assessment. Equations developed from ARTMA using 1960?79 data for each region were used to estimate GW levels during the 1980?81 drought, and estimates averaged between 25 to 45 cm of actual levels. These estimates are considered adequate to allow a useful assessment of drought onset, severity, and termination in other parts of the state. The techniques and equations should be transferrable to regions of comparable soils and climate.