Whither the Weather Analysis and Forecasting Process?

Abstract

An argument is made that if human forecasters are to continue to maintain a skill advantage over steadily improving model and guidance forecasts, then ways have to be found to prevent the deterioration of forecaster skills through disuse. The argument is extended to suggest that the absence of real-time, high quality mesoscale surface analyses is a significant roadblock to forecaster ability to detect, track, diagnose, and predict important mesoscale circulation features associated with a rich variety of weather of interest to the general public.