| contributor author | Fraedrich, Klaus | |
| contributor author | Raible, Christoph C. | |
| contributor author | Sielmann, Frank | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T15:03:10Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T15:03:10Z | |
| date copyright | 2003/02/01 | |
| date issued | 2003 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-3303.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4170657 | |
| description abstract | Tropical cyclone tracks in the Australian basin are predicted by an analog ensemble forecast model. It is self-adapting in its search of optimal ensemble members from historic cyclone tracks by creating a metric that minimizes the error of the ensemble mean forecast. When compared with the climatology?persistence reference model, the adapted analog forecasts achieve great-circle errors that improve the reference model by 15%?20%. Ensemble mean forecast errors grow almost linearly with ensemble spread. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Analog Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the Australian Region | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 18 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<0003:AEFOTC>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 3 | |
| journal lastpage | 11 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;2003:;volume( 018 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |