Two Years of Operational Hurricane Synoptic Surveillance

Abstract

In 1997, the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Research Division began operational synoptic surveillance missions with the Gulfstream IV-SP jet aircraft to improve the numerical guidance for hurricanes that threaten the continental United States, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hawaii. During the first two years, 24 missions were conducted. Global positioning system dropwindsondes were released from the aircraft at 150?200-km intervals along the flight track in the environment of each tropical cyclone to obtain profiles of wind, temperature, and humidity from flight level (nearly 150 hPa) to the surface. The observations were processed and formatted aboard the aircraft and sent to NCEP to be ingested into the Global Data Assimilation System, which subsequently served as initial and boundary conditions for a number of numerical models that forecast the track and intensity of tropical cyclones. The current study is an attempt to mimic this process to assess the impact of these operational missions on the numerical guidance. Although the small number of missions flown in 1997 showed error reductions of as much as 32%, the improvements seen in the 2-yr sample are not promising. The additional dropwindsonde data from the synoptic surveillance missions provided statistically significant improvements in the GFDL forecasts only at 12 h. The ?VBAR? and Global Forecast System (AVN) forecasts were not significantly improved at any forecast time. Further examination suggests that the AVN synthetic vortex procedure, combined with difficulty in the quantification of the current storm-motion vector operationally, may have caused the mediocre improvements. Forecast improvements of 14%?24% in GFDL forecasts are shown in the subset of cases in which the synthetic vortex data do not seem to be a problem. Improvements in the landfall forecasts are also seen in this subset of cases. A reassessment of tropical cyclone vortex initialization schemes used by forecast centers and numerical modelers may be necessary.