Verification of Precipitation Forecasts over the Alpine Region Using a High-Density Observing Network

Abstract

The demand for verification of forecasting systems to ascertain their strengths and weaknesses is increasing dramatically as models evolve more rapidly. Precipitation forecasts have always been of great interest to forecasters because they influence daily life. The recent flooding over Europe has also shown how important it is to know how models can reproduce these events. The issue of precipitation verification is addressed here, starting from the assumption that model spatial scales have to be verified against data representing similar scales. Only in this way may the skill of forecasting system used herein be determined. The performance of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts model in predicting precipitation is discussed. The study concentrates on the period September to November 1999 during which high-density observations were available for the Alps. The high-resolution observing network over the Alpine region has been used to reconstruct a precipitation analysis that contains smoothed small-scale variability and represents with sufficient accuracy the average behavior of the observed field in the model grid box. The precipitation forecast is verified against both the precipitation analysis and the surface synoptic observations (SYNOP) available in real time via the Global Telecommunication System. Both verification approaches show that for the Alpine region, during autumn 1999, the model overestimates the precipitation amount. Overestimation is smaller when the forecast is compared with the precipitation analysis. It is also shown that verification against irregular and scattered observations (SYNOP data) is highly influenced by the variability of the precipitation in a grid box. A precipitation analysis is, therefore, important if model skill has to be defined.