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    FORECASTER’S FORUM: Subjective Tornado Probability Forecasts in Severe Weather Watches

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;2001:;volume( 016 ):;issue: 001::page 192
    Author:
    Vescio, Michael D.
    ,
    Thompson, Richard L.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0192:FSFSTP>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: An experiment was conducted at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to assess the accuracy of subjective probability forecasts for tornadoes within individual convective watch areas. Probability forecasts for one or more and three or more tornadoes were produced for 166 severe weather watches during 1997 and 1998. Categorical forecasts of maximum tornado intensity, as indicated by F-scale damage ratings, were also performed. The probability and intensity forecasts were made in an operational setting prior to the issuance of each watch to simulate the decision making process that might be employed if the SPC were to begin including probabilities in their watch products. Results indicate considerable skill in forecasting tornado probabilities, though the maximum intensity forecasts were not particularly accurate. It is hypothesized that accurate tornado intensity forecasts will be difficult to achieve until storm-scale processes are more fully understood.
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      FORECASTER’S FORUM: Subjective Tornado Probability Forecasts in Severe Weather Watches

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4169167
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    contributor authorVescio, Michael D.
    contributor authorThompson, Richard L.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:59:53Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:59:53Z
    date copyright2001/02/01
    date issued2001
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-3169.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4169167
    description abstractAn experiment was conducted at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) to assess the accuracy of subjective probability forecasts for tornadoes within individual convective watch areas. Probability forecasts for one or more and three or more tornadoes were produced for 166 severe weather watches during 1997 and 1998. Categorical forecasts of maximum tornado intensity, as indicated by F-scale damage ratings, were also performed. The probability and intensity forecasts were made in an operational setting prior to the issuance of each watch to simulate the decision making process that might be employed if the SPC were to begin including probabilities in their watch products. Results indicate considerable skill in forecasting tornado probabilities, though the maximum intensity forecasts were not particularly accurate. It is hypothesized that accurate tornado intensity forecasts will be difficult to achieve until storm-scale processes are more fully understood.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleFORECASTER’S FORUM: Subjective Tornado Probability Forecasts in Severe Weather Watches
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume16
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0192:FSFSTP>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage192
    journal lastpage195
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;2001:;volume( 016 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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