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    An Objective Approach for Making Heavy Rainfall Forecasts Based on Numerical Model Output and the Latest Observation

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;1999:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 001::page 49
    Author:
    Xia, Jianguo
    ,
    Chen, Aiqin
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0049:AOAFMH>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: An approach is presented that can make an objective heavy rainfall forecast based on numerical model output and the latest observed rainfall without employing historical data. The idea of the approach is that the mean rainfall intensity R at more than 600 grid points can be obtained from the past 6-h rainfall observations at about 700 stations, the mean vertical velocity ?RT can be derived from R, and then the change of the ?RT is calculated;finally the rainfall forecast can be made by using the changed ?RT, the model-predicted u, ?, ?, and specific humidity q. The verification shows that the forecast skill of the approach was better than that of the model during the summer seasons of 1994 and 1995.
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      An Objective Approach for Making Heavy Rainfall Forecasts Based on Numerical Model Output and the Latest Observation

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4167579
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    contributor authorXia, Jianguo
    contributor authorChen, Aiqin
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:56:54Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:56:54Z
    date copyright1999/02/01
    date issued1999
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-3026.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4167579
    description abstractAn approach is presented that can make an objective heavy rainfall forecast based on numerical model output and the latest observed rainfall without employing historical data. The idea of the approach is that the mean rainfall intensity R at more than 600 grid points can be obtained from the past 6-h rainfall observations at about 700 stations, the mean vertical velocity ?RT can be derived from R, and then the change of the ?RT is calculated;finally the rainfall forecast can be made by using the changed ?RT, the model-predicted u, ?, ?, and specific humidity q. The verification shows that the forecast skill of the approach was better than that of the model during the summer seasons of 1994 and 1995.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAn Objective Approach for Making Heavy Rainfall Forecasts Based on Numerical Model Output and the Latest Observation
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume14
    journal issue1
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0434(1999)014<0049:AOAFMH>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage49
    journal lastpage52
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;1999:;volume( 014 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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