Transient Growth and Optimal Excitation of Thermohaline Variability

Abstract

The physical mechanisms of transient amplification of initial perturbations to the thermohaline circulation (THC), and of the optimal stochastic forcing of THC variability, are discussed using a simple meridional box model. Two distinct mechanisms of transient amplification are found. One such mechanism, with a transient amplification timescale of a couple of years, involves an interaction between the THC induced by rapidly decaying sea surface temperature anomalies and the THC induced by the slower-decaying salinity mode. The second mechanism of transient amplification involves an interaction between different slowly decaying salinity modes and has a typical growth timescale of decades. The optimal stochastic atmospheric forcing of heat and freshwater fluxes are calculated as well. It is shown that the optimal forcing induces low-frequency THC variability by exciting the salinity-dominated variability modes of the THC.