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    Verification and Sensitivity Experiments for the WISP94 MM5 Forecasts

    Source: Weather and Forecasting:;1997:;volume( 012 ):;issue: 004::page 719
    Author:
    Manning, Kevin W.
    ,
    Davis, Christopher A.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0719:VASEFT>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: A statistical verification of real-time forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) examines several model biases noted in numerical forecasts prepared for the Winter Icing and Storms Project?s 1994 field experiment. Verification of MM5 forecasts against satellite and radiosonde data reveals a strong cloudy bias in the mid- to upper troposphere, significant moist biases aloft and near the surface, and a deep cold bias through much of the troposphere. The cloudy bias and upper-level moist bias are traced to an inappropriate assumption in the microphysical parameterization. Simple changes to the parameterization greatly improve the cloud forecast. A portion of the deep cold bias is attributed to the simple parameterization of atmospheric radiation used for the forecasts. The low-level cold and moist biases are in large part due to the climatological values of soil moisture availability as a function of land-use category. Experiments with a one-dimensional column model further quantify the sensitivity of low-level temperatures to the soil moisture availability values. While an immediate improvement in model results can be achieved by selection of more appropriate values of moisture availability, ultimately a detailed initialization and parameterization of soil moisture is needed.
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      Verification and Sensitivity Experiments for the WISP94 MM5 Forecasts

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4166389
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    • Weather and Forecasting

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    contributor authorManning, Kevin W.
    contributor authorDavis, Christopher A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:53:51Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:53:51Z
    date copyright1997/12/01
    date issued1997
    identifier issn0882-8156
    identifier otherams-2919.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4166389
    description abstractA statistical verification of real-time forecasts from the Pennsylvania State University?National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) examines several model biases noted in numerical forecasts prepared for the Winter Icing and Storms Project?s 1994 field experiment. Verification of MM5 forecasts against satellite and radiosonde data reveals a strong cloudy bias in the mid- to upper troposphere, significant moist biases aloft and near the surface, and a deep cold bias through much of the troposphere. The cloudy bias and upper-level moist bias are traced to an inappropriate assumption in the microphysical parameterization. Simple changes to the parameterization greatly improve the cloud forecast. A portion of the deep cold bias is attributed to the simple parameterization of atmospheric radiation used for the forecasts. The low-level cold and moist biases are in large part due to the climatological values of soil moisture availability as a function of land-use category. Experiments with a one-dimensional column model further quantify the sensitivity of low-level temperatures to the soil moisture availability values. While an immediate improvement in model results can be achieved by selection of more appropriate values of moisture availability, ultimately a detailed initialization and parameterization of soil moisture is needed.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleVerification and Sensitivity Experiments for the WISP94 MM5 Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume12
    journal issue4
    journal titleWeather and Forecasting
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0434(1997)012<0719:VASEFT>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage719
    journal lastpage735
    treeWeather and Forecasting:;1997:;volume( 012 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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