Stability of the Thermohaline Circulation to Noisy Surface Buoyancy Forcing for the Present and a Warm Climate in an Ocean General Circulation Model

Abstract

The stabilities of two different circulation regimes in the North Atlantic, 1) the present thermohaline circulation and 2) a weaker thermohaline circulation, are compared using the Hamburg Large Scale Geostrophic (LSG) ocean circulation model. The latter circulation regime is obtained by restoring the LSG model toward an on average 4°C warmer air surface temperature corresponding to a doubled atmospheric content of CO2. The stabilities of these stationary states are investigated by imposing various amounts of stochastic noise on the surface freshwater flux. The simulations show more variability on secular timescales for the present than for the warm climate. Since the modeled static stabilities for the two climates are relatively similar, the different rates of variability are probably connected to other mechanisms. In the present climate at high latitudes the two buoyancy fluxes due to heat and freshwater are of similar magnitudes but with opposite signs; thus switches between convective and nonconvective periods at secular timescales are possible. In the warm climate the buoyancy flux due to heat dominates. This compensates the effect of the noisy freshwater forcing and thus reduces the potential for secular oscillations. The stronger coupling between the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean for the present relative to the warm climate could also contribute to this difference. Furthermore, the simulations show that the variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current transport for the present climate exceeds that of the warm climate. For increasing stochastic noise the present circulation approaches that of the warm circulation. The authors apply a mixture of heat flux and temperature restoring for the surface boundary condition. Comparison with similar works, which apply a pure restoring for surface temperature, shows that the ocean circulation is much less sensitive to forced stochastic freshwater anomalies with the type of boundary condition used herein. A box model is used to illustrate the effects of the surface temperature parameterizations and the different buoyancy forcing for the present and warm climate.