Initiation of an Elevated Mesoscale Convective System Associated with Heavy Rainfall

Abstract

A mesoscale convective system (MCS) developed during the morning hours of 6 June 1993 and moved across northern and central Missouri, resulting in a narrow swath of excessive rainfall (>150 mm). The MCS developed well north of a surface warm front above a cool, stable boundary layer and moved east?southeast across the state. Although some features of the synoptic environment agree with the frontal flash flood composite model, predicting the elevated thunderstorms that composed the MCS posed a unique forecasting challenge. This paper first describes the diagnostic parameters of the prestorm environment that would have been helpful to predict the initiation of the MCS and the resultant locally excessive precipitation. Attention is then drawn to the MCS itself via IR satellite and WSR-88D imagery. Finally, the similarities and differences of this episode to previous studies of flash flooding and elevated thunderstorms are noted, and a summary of key parameters useful in the anticipation of this type of convection and associated heavy rainfall are offered.