Analog (Nonlinear) Forecasts of the Southern Oscillation Index Time SeriesSource: Weather and Forecasting:;1994:;volume( 009 ):;issue: 001::page 78Author:Drosdowsky, Wasyl
DOI: 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0078:AFOTSO>2.0.CO;2Publisher: American Meteorological Society
Abstract: A nonlinear time series forecasting scheme developed by Sugihara and May has been applied to the Southern Oscillation index. Although forecast skill is comparable only to persistence or linear (autoregressive) methods, the scheme has the advantage of identifying close analogs to the current situation, if these exist. The operational implementation of the scheme in the Seasonal Climate Outlook issued by the National Climate Centre of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is described and its performance during the 1991/92 El Niño?Southern Oscillation event is examined.
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| contributor author | Drosdowsky, Wasyl | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:48:31Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:48:31Z | |
| date copyright | 1994/03/01 | |
| date issued | 1994 | |
| identifier issn | 0882-8156 | |
| identifier other | ams-2723.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4164212 | |
| description abstract | A nonlinear time series forecasting scheme developed by Sugihara and May has been applied to the Southern Oscillation index. Although forecast skill is comparable only to persistence or linear (autoregressive) methods, the scheme has the advantage of identifying close analogs to the current situation, if these exist. The operational implementation of the scheme in the Seasonal Climate Outlook issued by the National Climate Centre of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology is described and its performance during the 1991/92 El Niño?Southern Oscillation event is examined. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | Analog (Nonlinear) Forecasts of the Southern Oscillation Index Time Series | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 9 | |
| journal issue | 1 | |
| journal title | Weather and Forecasting | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0434(1994)009<0078:AFOTSO>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 78 | |
| journal lastpage | 84 | |
| tree | Weather and Forecasting:;1994:;volume( 009 ):;issue: 001 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext |