Hindcasts of Sea Level Variations during the 1982–83 El Niño

Abstract

The sea level signature for the onset of the 1982?83 El Niño is hindcasted using a linear wind-driven model that consists of four vertical modes. The hindcast solution is compared with sea level time series from 18 island and coastal stations throughout the tropical Pacific. The response of the first and second baroclinic modes, when summed, account for a significant portion of the phase and amplitude of the observed sea level. The comparisons with observed sea level are best in the eastern tropical Pacific along the equator and South American coast where the solutions are a function of integrals of the zonal wind field to the west. The skill of the hindcast is notably less away from the equator.