A Persistence Climatology for Interior and Coastal Southern New England

Abstract

One method of evaluating forecast skill is to compare probability forecasts of temperature and precipitation to a ?persistence climatology? (CLIMO) for a given location. In the absence of such data, forecasters at Central Connecticut State University have been using the CLIMO developed for Albany, New York by Bosart (1975) as the benchmark for skill in ongoing daily forecasting of minimum temperature and precipitation. Over thirty years of local climatological data have been analyzed and a persistence climatology for both interior (Windsor Locks, Connecticut) and coastal (Bridgeport, Connecticut) regions has been developed and interpreted with respect to both synoptic and climatological situations. The probabilities of colder than normal minimum temperatures and measurable precipitation are quite similar at both locations. In addition, these probabilities are similar to those for Albany in spite of the geographic differences among the three locales.