Evaluation of Vertical Motion: Past, Present, and Future

Abstract

The potential impact of gridded output from numerical models on operational forecasting of vertical motion is examined. A review of historical techniques for operational vertical motion evaluation is presented. An attempt is made to relate previous methods with current operational techniques, and to contrast these with techniques that could be applied operationally via the use of gridded model output. This paper makes the point that most of the current operational practices for the estimation of vertical motion and the general interpretation of numerical model output are based on techniques that were originally used to create surface and upper air prognoses manually in the pre-NWP era, and are no longer appropriate or optimal. Unfortunately the tools available to operational forecasters are also a remnant of this same era. Gridded data from numerical models have the potential to greatly change operational methods of vertical motion estimation and general interpretation of numerical models.