The National Hurricane Center—Past, Present, and Future

Abstract

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is one of three national centers operated by the National Weather Service (NWS). It has national and international responsibilities for the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific tropical and subtropical belts (including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) for tropical analyses, marine and aviation forecasts, and the tropical cyclone forecast and warning programs for the region. Its roots date back to the 1870s, and it is now in the forefront of the NWS modernization program. Numerous changes and improvements have taken place in observational and forecast guidance tools and in the warning and response process over the years. In spite of all these improvement, the loss of property and the potential for loss of life due to tropical cyclones continues to increase rapidly. Forecasts are improving, but not nearly as fast as populations are increasing in hurricane prone areas such as the United States East and Gulf Coast barrier islands. The result is that longer and longer lead times are required for communities to prepare for hurricanes. The sea land over lake surge from hurricanes (SLOSH) model is used to illustrate areas of innudation for the Galveston/Houston, Texas; New Orleans, Louisiana, southwest Florida; and the Atlantic City, New Jersey areas under selected hurricane scenarios. These results indicate the requirement for lengthy evacuation times. The forecast and warning process is then illustrated, starting with tropical analyses, numerical guidance, the meteorological/hydrological coordination of the forecast, and finally the warning coordination and response process. Examples are used to illustrate the sensitivity of the warning and response process to preplanning based upon SLOSH model results, the coordination between NWS and local and state officials, and the critical role played by the media for motivating people to take the desired action in an orderly fashion. These examples illustrate how this process worked to near perfection during Hurricane Hugo, but was disrupted in the Galveston/Houston area by conflicting information reaching local officials and the public during Hurricane Gilbert. Finally, a brief look into the future is attempted, with emphasis upon new observing systems, next generation numerical models and expected improvements in tropical cyclone track and intensity forecasts and the warning process at landfall and inland. The next generation weather radar (NEXRAD) systems in the modernized and restructured NWS are expected to play a major role in improving short-term warnings of flash floods, high winds, and possible tornadoes as hurricanes move inland and start to decay.