Predicting Hurricane Landfall Precipitation: Optimistic and Pessimistic Views from the Symposium on Precipitation Extremes

Abstract

The Symposium on Precipitation Extremes was one of two special symposia organized for the American Meteorological Society national meeting. This symposium was organized into sessions on winter precipitation, summer precipitation, and hurricane-related precipitation. This summary focuses on the last session in relation to the U.S. Weather Research Program Hurricane Landfall goals for quantitative precipitation forecasts to 72 h and improving the skill of day-3 forecasts for inland flooding. Optimistic and pessimistic views are summarized of what is the present capability and future opportunities for progress toward these goals. Six overview papers served to describe the precipitation characteristics while the hurricane was still over the ocean and during and following landfall, and included the topic of extratropical transition of a tropical cyclone. Thirty-two posters and four invited presentations for a panel discussion on future needs and opportunities have been used to assess observations, statistical and empirical predictions, and numerical weather prediction approaches. A concluding section on future requirements is provided tostimulate discussion on the opportunities for the U.S. Weather Research Program.