Weather Impacts, Forecasts, and Policy: An Integrated Perspective

Abstract

Society invests considerable resources into the science and technology of weather services. In order to effectively assess the market for weather services, and thus properly scale the level of resources that, for example, the U.S. Congress or a company ought to devote to serving this market, decision makers need information on the costs and benefits associated with alternative courses of action. To date such information has not been readily or systematicallyavailable, leaving unanswered questions about the effectiveness of investment in the science and technology of weather. We argue herein that the allocation of resources to weather in the public and private sectors is unlikely tobecome more effective or?of particular concern to the weather community?grow significantly unless the weather community takes an integrated perspective on weather impacts, forecasts, and policy that provides decision makers with reliable information on the costs and benefits of alternative courses of action. This paper suggests one such integrated perspective that might guide the provision of such information to decision makers. Two recommendations follow straightforwardly from the perspective offered herein: 1) The weather community should take on fully, as itsresponsibility, the systematic and comprehensive understanding of weather and forecast impacts. 2) Leaders in the weather community should seek to develop a substantive understanding and vision that wields real, not pretended,power and leads the community to work in a mutually reinforced collaboration toward common goals. Withoutrecognition that it is the integrated forecast process that needs attention, and not simply improvement in forecast products, implementation of even the best-intended plan is likely to fall short of achieving the nation's potential in outcomes related to weather prediction.