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    Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2001:;volume( 082 ):;issue: 012::page 2787
    Author:
    Nobre, Paulo
    ,
    Moura, Antonio D.
    ,
    Sun, Liqiang
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2787:DDOSCP>2.3.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January?April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one?way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80?km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM?80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80?km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root?mean?square error. On the other hand, the RSM?20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM?80 model is one of the principal reasons for better?forecast scores of the RSM?80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic?scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80?km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.
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      Dynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4161906
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    contributor authorNobre, Paulo
    contributor authorMoura, Antonio D.
    contributor authorSun, Liqiang
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:43:09Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:43:09Z
    date copyright2001/12/01
    date issued2001
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-25154.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4161906
    description abstractThis study presents an evaluation of a seasonal climate forecast done with the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) dynamical forecast system (regional model nested into a general circulation model) over northern South America for January?April 1999, encompassing the rainy season over Brazil's Nordeste. The one?way nesting is one in two tiers: first the NCEP's Regional Spectral Model (RSM) runs with an 80?km grid mesh forced by the ECHAM3 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) outputs; then the RSM runs with a finer grid mesh (20 km) forced by the forecasts generated by the RSM?80. An ensemble of three realizations is done. Lower boundary conditions over the oceans for both ECHAM and RSM model runs are sea surface temperature forecasts over the tropical oceans. Soil moisture is initialized by ECHAM's inputs. The rainfall forecasts generated by the regional model are compared with those of the AGCM and observations. It is shown that the regional model at 80?km resolution improves upon the AGCM rainfall forecast, reducing both seasonal bias and root?mean?square error. On the other hand, the RSM?20 forecasts presented larger errors, with spatial patterns that resemble those of local topography. The better forecast of the position and width of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the tropical Atlantic by the RSM?80 model is one of the principal reasons for better?forecast scores of the RSM?80 relative to the AGCM. The regional model improved the spatial as well as the temporal details of rainfall distribution, and also presenting the minimum spread among the ensemble members. The statistics of synoptic?scale weather variability on seasonal timescales were best forecast with the regional 80?km model over the Nordeste. The possibility of forecasting the frequency distribution of dry and wet spells within the rainy season is encouraging.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleDynamical Downscaling of Seasonal Climate Prediction over Nordeste Brazil with ECHAM3 and NCEP's Regional Spectral Models at IRI
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume82
    journal issue12
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082<2787:DDOSCP>2.3.CO;2
    journal fristpage2787
    journal lastpage2796
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2001:;volume( 082 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
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