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    A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State–of–the–Art Seasonal Climate Prediction

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2000:;volume( 081 ):;issue: 006::page 1271
    Author:
    Barnston, Anthony G.
    ,
    He, Yuxiang
    ,
    Unger, David A.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1271:AFPTMU>2.3.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal?to?noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied "tilts of the odds" of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.
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      A Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State–of–the–Art Seasonal Climate Prediction

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4161715
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    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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    contributor authorBarnston, Anthony G.
    contributor authorHe, Yuxiang
    contributor authorUnger, David A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:42:43Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:42:43Z
    date copyright2000/06/01
    date issued2000
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-24983.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4161715
    description abstractThe prediction of seasonal climate anomalies at useful lead times often involves an unfavorable signal?to?noise ratio. The forecasts, while consequently tending to have modest skill, nonetheless have significant utility when packaged in ways to which users can relate and respond appropriately. This paper presents a reasonable but unprecedented manner in which to issue seasonal climate forecasts and illustrates how implied "tilts of the odds" of the forecasted climate may be used beneficially by technical as well as nontechnical clients.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleA Forecast Product that Maximizes Utility for State–of–the–Art Seasonal Climate Prediction
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume81
    journal issue6
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0477(2000)081<1271:AFPTMU>2.3.CO;2
    journal fristpage1271
    journal lastpage1279
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;2000:;volume( 081 ):;issue: 006
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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