African Rainfall as a Precursor of Hurricane-Related Destruction on the U.S. East Coast

Abstract

This paper describes a predictive relationship between West African rainfall and U.S. hurricane-spawned destruction, which is based on information for the 42-yr period 1949?90. It is shown that above-average rainfall during the previous year along the Gulf of Guinea, in combination with above-average rainfall in the western Sahel during June and July, is linked to hurricane-spawned destruction along the U.S. East Coast occurring after 1 August, which is 10?20 times greater than in years when pre-1 August precipitation for these West African regions is below average. Similar hurricane- spawned damage along the U.S. Gulf Coast shows only a negligible relationship with African rainfall. Hurricane-caused deaths for both U.S. coastal regions also show a similar association with West African rainfall.