Prediction of the Life Cycle of a Supertyphoon with a High-Resolution Global Model

Abstract

The life cycle of Supertyphoon Hope (1979) from a tropical depression stage to intensification and its eventual weakening after land-fall, some 6 days later, is followed in a real-data numerical prediction experiment. The predictions are carried out with a very high-resolution global spectral model, (Spectral resolution, triangular 170 waves). The initial data for this study are obtained from the delayed reanalysis of the Global Experiment (1979). Those were the analysis of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Initialization is based on nonlinear normal mode with physics. The model has 12 vertical layers with staggered variables. A detailed physical-dynamical model is used for these studies. This typhoon prediction is a follow-up of a recent study (Krishnamurti et al. 1989). Here we show the prediction of the life cycle at a much higher resolution. The present study illustrates a remarkable prediction of the track, structure, and intensity of the supertyphoon at the higher resolution and raises the possibility for major improvement of tropical storm prediction with real data.