Clarification of Confirmation in the FACE-2 Experiment

Abstract

The Florida Area cumulus Experiment (FACE) is a long-term program to determine the potential of dynamic seeding for increasing convective rainfall over a fixed target area. The first phase of FACE (FACE-1) provided strong indications for increased, seeding-induced rainfall. The second phase, FACE-2 (beginning in June 1978 and ending in August 1980), was conducted in an attempt to confirm these indications of a positive seeding effect. The criteria for confirmation in FACE-2 were published in a NOAA Technical Report prior to program commencement. A clarification and sharpening of these confirmatory criteria are discussed in this paper. In addition, a minority position of what is to constitute confirmation in FACE-2 involving the use of linear predictor models also is discussed. This paper was written and accepted for publication before treatment decisions of FACE-2 were known.