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    On the Verification of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

    Source: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1981:;volume( 062 ):;issue: 012::page 1654
    Author:
    Bettge, Thomas W.
    ,
    Baumhefner, David P.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0477(1981)062<1654:OTVOSC>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: Readily available forecasts of winter season temperature anomalies for the continental United States are analyzed and compared to the observed anomalies for each of the past five winter seasons. Forcast skill is evaluated by different verification methodologies, and it is shown that a judgment of skill can be dependent on the particular verification technique employed. Verification in terms of principal components is shown to be a useful diagnostic aid, in that it allows for the recognition of naturally occurring temperature anomaly patterns in the atmosphere. Other general issues concerning the current state of seasonal climate forecasting also are discussed as they relate to the question of verification strategies.
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      On the Verification of Seasonal Climate Forecasts

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    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4160630
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    • Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

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    contributor authorBettge, Thomas W.
    contributor authorBaumhefner, David P.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T14:40:00Z
    date available2017-06-09T14:40:00Z
    date copyright1981/12/01
    date issued1981
    identifier issn0003-0007
    identifier otherams-24005.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4160630
    description abstractReadily available forecasts of winter season temperature anomalies for the continental United States are analyzed and compared to the observed anomalies for each of the past five winter seasons. Forcast skill is evaluated by different verification methodologies, and it is shown that a judgment of skill can be dependent on the particular verification technique employed. Verification in terms of principal components is shown to be a useful diagnostic aid, in that it allows for the recognition of naturally occurring temperature anomaly patterns in the atmosphere. Other general issues concerning the current state of seasonal climate forecasting also are discussed as they relate to the question of verification strategies.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleOn the Verification of Seasonal Climate Forecasts
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume62
    journal issue12
    journal titleBulletin of the American Meteorological Society
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0477(1981)062<1654:OTVOSC>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage1654
    journal lastpage1654
    treeBulletin of the American Meteorological Society:;1981:;volume( 062 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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