Hurricane Surge Potentials Over Southeast Louisiana as Revealed by a Storm-Surge Forecast Model: A Preliminary Study

Abstract

A storm-surge model developed in 1977 for Southeast Louisiana predicts sea, lake, and overland surges from hurricanes (SLOSH). Primary model output is the average water level conditions over a finite geographical area. The model appears capable of profiling definitive evidence for the varied impact of storm surges to future generations in Southeast Louisiana; however, model surge forecasts are governed strongly by the accuracy in describing the movement and intensity of tropical storms. A simplified initial study was undertaken to gain a physical understanding of, and insights on, the potential surges over Southeast Louisiana. A brief synopsis of the hurricane flood potential is given.