Forecasting the Coastal Ocean: Resolution, Tide, and Operational Data in the South Atlantic Bight

Abstract

This paper addresses shelf-scale simulation with dominant open-water boundary conditions obtained by inversion of interior data. Important, established operational data streams are located along the shore of the study area, in areas influenced strongly by the local geometry. Failure to properly resolve the modeled near field surrounding these data results in their incorrect interpretation, causing invalid inversions and erroneous field estimates far across the shelf. Specifically, improving the model fit to the unresolved data leads to skill degeneration farther offshore and generally unacceptable field estimates remarkably far from shore. Proper near-field resolution leads to valid interpretation and inversion of the same data, with high inverse skill apparent across the shelf. The resolution required is within reach of today's technology.