Climatological SST and MLD Predictions from a Global Layered Ocean Model with an Embedded Mixed Layer

Abstract

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Layered Ocean Model (NLOM) with an embedded mixed layer submodel is used to predict the climatological monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) and surface ocean mixed layer depth (MLD) over the global ocean. The thermodynamic model simulations presented in this paper are performed using six dynamical layers plus the embedded mixed layer at 1/2° resolution in latitude and 0.703125° in longitude, globally spanning from 72°S to 65°N. These model simulations use climatological wind and thermal forcing and include no assimilation of SST or MLD data. To measure the effectiveness of the NLOM mixed layer, the annual mean and seasonal cycle of SST and MLD obtained from the model simulations are compared to those from different climatological datasets at each grid point over the global ocean. Analysis of the global error maps shows that the embedded mixed layer in NLOM gives accurate SST with atmospheric forcing even with no SST relaxation/assimilation. In this case the model gives a global root-mean-square (rms) difference of 0.37°C for the annual mean and 0.59°C over the seasonal cycle over the global ocean. The mean global correlation coefficient (R) is 0.91 for the seasonal cycle of the SST. NLOM predicts SST with an annual mean error of <0.5°C in most of the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans. For the MLD the model gave a global rms difference of 34 m for the annual mean and 63 m over the seasonal cycle over the global ocean in comparison to the NRL MLD climatology (NMLD). The mean global R value is 0.62 for the seasonal cycle of the MLD. Additional model?data comparisons use climatological monthly mean SST time series from 18 National Oceanic Data Center (NODC) buoys and 11 ocean weather station (OWS) hydrographic locations in the North Pacific Ocean. The median rms difference between the NLOM SSTs and SSTs at these 29 locations is 0.49°C for the seasonal cycle. Deepening and shallowing of the MLD at the all OWS locations in the northeast Pacific are captured by the model with an rms difference of <20 m and an R value of >0.85 for the seasonal cycle. Using several statistical measures and climatologies of SST and MLD we have demonstrated that NLOM with an embedded mixed layer is able to simulate with substantial skill the climatological SST and MLD when using accurate and computationally efficient surface heat flux and solar radiation attenuation parameterizations over the global ocean. Further, this was accomplished using a model with only seven layers in the vertical, including the embedded mixed layer. Success of climatological predictions from the NLOM with an embedded mixed layer is a prerequisite for simulations using interannual atmospheric forcing with high temporal resolution. NLOM gives accurate upper-ocean quantities with atmospheric forcing even with no SST relaxation or assimilation, a strong indication that the model is a good candidate for assimilation of SST data. Finally, the techniques and datasets used here can be applied to evaluation of other ocean models in predicting the SST and MLD.