| contributor author | Benzi, Roberto | |
| contributor author | Carnevale, George F. | |
| date accessioned | 2017-06-09T14:29:26Z | |
| date available | 2017-06-09T14:29:26Z | |
| date copyright | 1989/12/01 | |
| date issued | 1988 | |
| identifier issn | 0022-4928 | |
| identifier other | ams-20233.pdf | |
| identifier uri | http://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4156439 | |
| description abstract | In this paper we suggest that the longevity of the enhanced predictability periods often observed in the weather and general circulation models can he quantified by a study of the statistical moments of error growth rates as has been demonstrated for dynamical systems. As an illustration, it is shown how this approach can he pursued in simple cases. For the Lorenz model, the probability density distribution of error growth is close to log-normal and the average growth rate is two times shorter than the most probable. In general, we argue that the ratio of the average growth rate to the most probable is a measure of enhanced predictability. | |
| publisher | American Meteorological Society | |
| title | A Possible Measure of Local Predictability | |
| type | Journal Paper | |
| journal volume | 46 | |
| journal issue | 23 | |
| journal title | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences | |
| identifier doi | 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<3595:APMOLP>2.0.CO;2 | |
| journal fristpage | 3595 | |
| journal lastpage | 3598 | |
| tree | Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences:;1988:;Volume( 046 ):;issue: 023 | |
| contenttype | Fulltext | |