Coherent Structures in a Baroclinic Atmosphere. Part IV: A Comparison between Theory and Data

Abstract

In a series of previous papers, a local theory was formulated to model the persistent atmospheric patterns known as blocking events. The adopted model was the fully nonlinear, baroclinic quasi-geostrophic potential vorticity equation with a mean zonal wind having vertical and horizontal shear. Solutions were found consisting of localized dipole structures with an equivalent barotropic vertical structure. The basic ?recipe? provided by the theory was that, in order to form a block characterized by a split flow with an embedded vortex pair, the upstream mean zonal wind ?(y, z) must have a structure which allows for local confinement. Specifically, the function V = ¼ ? q?y/?, with q?y, the meridional gradient of mean potential vorticity, must have the shape of a potential well. The bound states of this potential well are structures localized in the (y, z) plane and trapped by the well's positive barriers. The data analysis carried out here and the results presented are designed to establish whether such a trapping structure exists for the positive blocking cases when compared with the winter climatological mean or other patterns such as the negative anomaly cases of Dole. The unambiguous and robust results emerging from the data analysis are: (i) the composite of the positive anomaly cases shows a strong northern barrier centered in the latitude band 62° to 72°N, in agreement with the northern confinement of the block. The southern barrier, if present, is not covered by the available data. The northern, positive barrier is not present in the climatology. Its presence and significance are doubtful and debatable for the negative anomaly composite. (ii) For the individual positive cases of blocking in which the vortex pair is sufficiently north to be fully covered by the analysis and for which a smooth and zonal upstream wind can be defined, the V-function shows both northern and southern positive brriers at the latitudes of block confinement.