Evaluation of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Tropical-Cyclone Intensity and Size Estimation Algorithms

Abstract

Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) data are used to provide objective estimates of 1-min maximum sustained surface winds, minimum sea level pressure, and the radii of 34-, 50-, and 64-kt (1 kt ≡ 0.5144 m s?1) winds in the northeast, southeast, southwest, and northwest quadrants of tropical cyclones. The algorithms are derived from AMSU temperature, pressure, and wind retrievals from all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic and east Pacific basins during 1999?2001. National Hurricane Center best-track intensity and operational radii estimates are used as dependent variables in a multiple-regression approach. The intensity algorithms are evaluated for the developmental sample using a jackknife procedure and independent cases from the 2002 hurricane season. Jackknife results for the maximum winds and minimum sea level pressure estimates are mean absolute errors (MAE) of 11.0 kt and 6.7 hPa, respectively, and rmse of 14.1 kt and 9.3 hPa, respectively. For cases with corresponding reconnaissance data, the MAE are 10.7 kt and 6.1 hPa, and the rmse are 14.9 kt and 9.2 hPa. The independent cases for 2002 have errors that are only slightly larger than those from the developmental sample. Results from the jackknife evaluation of the 34-, 50-, and 64-kt radii show mean errors of 30, 24, and 14 n mi, respectively. The results for the independent sample from 2002 are generally comparable to the developmental sample, except for the 64-kt wind radii, which have larger errors. The radii errors for the 2002 sample with aircraft reconnaissance data available are all comparable to the errors from the jackknife sample, including the 64-kt radii.