Uncertainty in Trajectory Calculations Due to Low Resolution Meteorological Data

Abstract

Meteorological observations conducted during the Cross Appalachian Tracer Experiment (CAPTEX) were utilized to quantify the uncertainty in boundary layer trajectory calculations due to low-resolution meteorological data [the current National Weather Service (NWS) rawinsonde network). Evaluation of several spatial and temporal interpolation techniques against high-resolution measurements revealed mean absolute errors of 2?4 m s?1 in estimation of horizontal wind components. A trajectory of errors procedure is introduced that allows the quantification of probable errors in transport calculation due to imprecise interpolation. Our results, based on the observed distributions of spatial and temporal interpolation errors during CAPTEX, indicate dust boundary layer trajectories calculated using the current NWS network with 12 h resolution contain a 50% chance of exceeding horizontal displacement errors of 350 km after 72 h travel time. An increase in spatial resolution is shown to improve the accuracy of trajectory calculations more than an increase in temporal resolution. These results are representative of relatively undisturbed flow in the northeastern United States and southern Canada and do not include the possible effects of nonindependent trajectory errors.