YaBeSH Engineering and Technology Library

    • Journals
    • PaperQuest
    • YSE Standards
    • YaBeSH
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology
    • View Item
    •   YE&T Library
    • AMS
    • Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology
    • View Item
    • All Fields
    • Source Title
    • Year
    • Publisher
    • Title
    • Subject
    • Author
    • DOI
    • ISBN
    Advanced Search
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Archive

    The Stability of Empirical Long-Range Forecast Techniques: A Case Study

    Source: Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology:;1984:;volume( 023 ):;issue: 001::page 143
    Author:
    Nicholls, N.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0143:TSOELR>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The stability of simple linear regression equations for the long-range prediction of Australian spring rainfall was studied. Specifically, the way in which the accuracy of the forecasts depends on the number of years of data used to derive the equations and the length of the period between the end of the data used in forecast equation derivation and the application of the equations in prediction were examined. An optimum period of data of about 15 years was found; the use of more or less data in deriving the forecast equations led to deterioration in the forecasts. The forecasts also deteriorated if the equations were used for more than a few years after the end of the period of data from which they were derived, suggesting a need for routine updating of the forecast equations. The lack of stability in the forecast equations presumably reflects nonstationarity in the data series possibly resulting from changes in the general circulation patterns. If this is so, the results might be applicable to similar statistical long-range forecast methods in other areas.
    • Download: (384.3Kb)
    • Show Full MetaData Hide Full MetaData
    • Item Order
    • Go To Publisher
    • Price: 5000 Rial
    • Statistics

      The Stability of Empirical Long-Range Forecast Techniques: A Case Study

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4145787
    Collections
    • Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology

    Show full item record

    contributor authorNicholls, N.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T13:59:56Z
    date available2017-06-09T13:59:56Z
    date copyright1984/01/01
    date issued1984
    identifier issn0733-3021
    identifier otherams-10647.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4145787
    description abstractThe stability of simple linear regression equations for the long-range prediction of Australian spring rainfall was studied. Specifically, the way in which the accuracy of the forecasts depends on the number of years of data used to derive the equations and the length of the period between the end of the data used in forecast equation derivation and the application of the equations in prediction were examined. An optimum period of data of about 15 years was found; the use of more or less data in deriving the forecast equations led to deterioration in the forecasts. The forecasts also deteriorated if the equations were used for more than a few years after the end of the period of data from which they were derived, suggesting a need for routine updating of the forecast equations. The lack of stability in the forecast equations presumably reflects nonstationarity in the data series possibly resulting from changes in the general circulation patterns. If this is so, the results might be applicable to similar statistical long-range forecast methods in other areas.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleThe Stability of Empirical Long-Range Forecast Techniques: A Case Study
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume23
    journal issue1
    journal titleJournal of Climate and Applied Meteorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0143:TSOELR>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage143
    journal lastpage147
    treeJournal of Climate and Applied Meteorology:;1984:;volume( 023 ):;issue: 001
    contenttypeFulltext
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian
     
    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
    نرم افزار کتابخانه دیجیتال "دی اسپیس" فارسی شده توسط یابش برای کتابخانه های ایرانی | تماس با یابش
    yabeshDSpacePersian