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    Long-Period Tidal Forcing of Indian Monsoon Rainfall: An Hypothesis

    Source: Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology:;1983:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 002::page 287
    Author:
    Campbell, William H.
    ,
    Blechman, Jerome B.
    ,
    Bryson, Reid A.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<0287:LPTFOI>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: This paper examines the nature of the periodic components observed in the interannual variability of June rainfall in northern India by using an eigenvector analysis of the spectra of the June rainfall record (1895?1975) and an eigenvector analysis of the precipitation data itself for stations in that region. The first eigenvectors of these analyses have similar spatial and spectral characteristics which indicate that in June the atmosphere in northern India responds strongly at two frequencies, 0.05 and 0.26 year?1. These two frequencies match the two dominant frequencies in the spectrum of a time series (1895?1975) of the mean monthly soli-lunar tidal potential at the latitude of northern India. It is hypothesized that tidal effects modulate the advance of the monsoon ?front?, producing some of the observed interannual variability. This hypothesis has been tested by using the tidal frequencies to predict June rainfall a year in advance. The success rate of these year-in-advance forecasts in northern India, on independent data, significantly exceeded that expected by chance or predicted by interannual persistence, suggesting that mechanical tidal forcing might be a useful additional long-range forecast tool.
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      Long-Period Tidal Forcing of Indian Monsoon Rainfall: An Hypothesis

    URI
    http://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl1/handle/yetl/4145561
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    • Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology

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    contributor authorCampbell, William H.
    contributor authorBlechman, Jerome B.
    contributor authorBryson, Reid A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T13:59:18Z
    date available2017-06-09T13:59:18Z
    date copyright1983/02/01
    date issued1983
    identifier issn0733-3021
    identifier otherams-10443.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4145561
    description abstractThis paper examines the nature of the periodic components observed in the interannual variability of June rainfall in northern India by using an eigenvector analysis of the spectra of the June rainfall record (1895?1975) and an eigenvector analysis of the precipitation data itself for stations in that region. The first eigenvectors of these analyses have similar spatial and spectral characteristics which indicate that in June the atmosphere in northern India responds strongly at two frequencies, 0.05 and 0.26 year?1. These two frequencies match the two dominant frequencies in the spectrum of a time series (1895?1975) of the mean monthly soli-lunar tidal potential at the latitude of northern India. It is hypothesized that tidal effects modulate the advance of the monsoon ?front?, producing some of the observed interannual variability. This hypothesis has been tested by using the tidal frequencies to predict June rainfall a year in advance. The success rate of these year-in-advance forecasts in northern India, on independent data, significantly exceeded that expected by chance or predicted by interannual persistence, suggesting that mechanical tidal forcing might be a useful additional long-range forecast tool.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleLong-Period Tidal Forcing of Indian Monsoon Rainfall: An Hypothesis
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume22
    journal issue2
    journal titleJournal of Climate and Applied Meteorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(1983)022<0287:LPTFOI>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage287
    journal lastpage296
    treeJournal of Climate and Applied Meteorology:;1983:;volume( 022 ):;issue: 002
    contenttypeFulltext
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