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    An Application of Model Output Statistics to the Development of a Local Wind Regime Forecast Procedure

    Source: Journal of Applied Meteorology:;1982:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 012::page 1786
    Author:
    Godfrey, Robert A.
    DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<1786:AAOMOS>2.0.CO;2
    Publisher: American Meteorological Society
    Abstract: The Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach is used to develop a procedure for forecasting the occurrence of a local wind regime at Rota, Spain known as the levante. Variables derived solely from surface pressure and 500 mb height forecast fields of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center operational model are used as possible predictors of levante occurrence. These variables are screened by a stepwise discriminant analysis program to determine those which best discriminate between the occurrence and non-occurrence of a levante. The variables which are selected are used by the program as predictors in a levante forecast procedure. The forecast procedure is developed on a four-year data set and is then tested on a separate one-year data set. In addition to an independent data test, a ten is conducted to compare the levante forecasts produced by this procedure with the forecasts produced by the procedure used by forecasters at Rota. The MOS procedure shows skill and compares favorably with the Rota forecast procedure.
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      An Application of Model Output Statistics to the Development of a Local Wind Regime Forecast Procedure

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    contributor authorGodfrey, Robert A.
    date accessioned2017-06-09T13:59:08Z
    date available2017-06-09T13:59:08Z
    date copyright1982/12/01
    date issued1982
    identifier issn0021-8952
    identifier otherams-10397.pdf
    identifier urihttp://onlinelibrary.yabesh.ir/handle/yetl/4145509
    description abstractThe Model Output Statistics (MOS) approach is used to develop a procedure for forecasting the occurrence of a local wind regime at Rota, Spain known as the levante. Variables derived solely from surface pressure and 500 mb height forecast fields of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center operational model are used as possible predictors of levante occurrence. These variables are screened by a stepwise discriminant analysis program to determine those which best discriminate between the occurrence and non-occurrence of a levante. The variables which are selected are used by the program as predictors in a levante forecast procedure. The forecast procedure is developed on a four-year data set and is then tested on a separate one-year data set. In addition to an independent data test, a ten is conducted to compare the levante forecasts produced by this procedure with the forecasts produced by the procedure used by forecasters at Rota. The MOS procedure shows skill and compares favorably with the Rota forecast procedure.
    publisherAmerican Meteorological Society
    titleAn Application of Model Output Statistics to the Development of a Local Wind Regime Forecast Procedure
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume21
    journal issue12
    journal titleJournal of Applied Meteorology
    identifier doi10.1175/1520-0450(1982)021<1786:AAOMOS>2.0.CO;2
    journal fristpage1786
    journal lastpage1791
    treeJournal of Applied Meteorology:;1982:;volume( 021 ):;issue: 012
    contenttypeFulltext
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    DSpace software copyright © 2002-2015  DuraSpace
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