Valuation of Flood Reductions in the Yellow River Basin under Land Use Change

Abstract

An economic valuation of flood reductions arising from land use changes induced by the Conversion of Cropland to Forest and Grassland Program (CCFGP) in China is detailed in this paper. A distributed hydrologic model is used to analyze and predict changes in the probability of flood occurrences in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) due to revegetation activities under the CCFGP. The expected value of flood reductions due to the avoided flood damage potential is then estimated. Losses brought about by each type of flood in the YRB over time and the probability change in flood occurrences are used in the calculation. Results show that the economic benefits from flood reductions will total China Yuan 362 million during 2010–2020. The inclusion of this economic benefit into a benefit-cost analysis of the CCFGP provides a more comprehensive assessment of the program. Implications for prioritizing management options to mitigate flood disasters in the YRB are drawn.