Reservoir Operating Rules with Fuzzy Programming

Abstract

Relatively little of the research on reservoir operating procedures has found its way into actual practice. One reason is that operators are uncomfortable with complex optimization models and reluctant to use procedures that they do not fully understand. Fuzzy logic seems to offer a way to improve on existing operating practices, which is relatively easy to explain and understand. The main concepts in fuzzy logic and a procedure for applying them are explained. These are applied to finding operating procedures for a single-purpose hydroelectric project, where both the inflows and the selling price for energy can vary. Operation of the system is simulated using both fuzzy logic programming and fixed rules. The results are compared with those obtained by deterministic dynamic programming with hindsight. The use of fuzzy logic with flow forecasts is also investigated. The conclusion is that the fuzzy logic approach is promising, but it suffers from the “curse of dimensionality.” It can be a useful supplement to other conventional optimization techniques, but probably not a replacement.