Effectiveness of Water‐Conservation Measures in Greater Athens Area

Abstract

An ARIMA (auto regressive‐integrated‐moving‐average) time‐series modeling framework is used to assess the effectiveness of water‐conservation measures taken in the Greater Athens Area of Greece after May 1990, in an effort to cope with a pending water shortage. The models used include two components; the first forecasts historical water consumption and the second accounts for the potential effects of conservation. Total and residential charged water consumption are examined and a statistically significant drop in their levels is revealed. In the absence of other important events that could have influenced water consumption, it is concluded that the observed decline with respect to the forecasted value of water consumption can be safely attributed to the conservation measures taken. Although a dramatic increase in the price of water was the most important component of the conservation effort, the present study cannot be used as the sole basis for gauging its particular contribution. Additional analyses toward this objective are recommended in the conclusions.