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    Reliability Indices for Water Supply Systems

    Source: Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;1987:;Volume ( 113 ):;issue: 004
    Author:
    Richard M. Vogel
    DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1987)113:4(563)
    Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
    Abstract: In the design of hydraulic structures for flood control, it has become standard practice to employ the average return period of a flood as the design event. This study introduces an analogous index for the design of a water supply system: the average return period of a reservoir system failure, defined as the expected number of years until the first reservoir system failure. Here a failure is defined as a year in which the prespecified yield could not be delivered by a water supply system. The mean and variance of the time until the first reservoir system failure are derived, as are the mean and variance of the duration of a reservoir system failure for a simple Markov failure model. Other indices of the reliability of a water supply system are also introduced. The assumption that sequences of reservoir surplus and failures can be represented by a two‐state Markov chain is validated for the Pacific Northwest Hydroelectric Power System.
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      Reliability Indices for Water Supply Systems

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    contributor authorRichard M. Vogel
    date accessioned2017-05-08T21:06:20Z
    date available2017-05-08T21:06:20Z
    date copyrightJuly 1987
    date issued1987
    identifier other%28asce%290733-9496%281987%29113%3A4%28563%29.pdf
    identifier urihttp://yetl.yabesh.ir/yetl/handle/yetl/38851
    description abstractIn the design of hydraulic structures for flood control, it has become standard practice to employ the average return period of a flood as the design event. This study introduces an analogous index for the design of a water supply system: the average return period of a reservoir system failure, defined as the expected number of years until the first reservoir system failure. Here a failure is defined as a year in which the prespecified yield could not be delivered by a water supply system. The mean and variance of the time until the first reservoir system failure are derived, as are the mean and variance of the duration of a reservoir system failure for a simple Markov failure model. Other indices of the reliability of a water supply system are also introduced. The assumption that sequences of reservoir surplus and failures can be represented by a two‐state Markov chain is validated for the Pacific Northwest Hydroelectric Power System.
    publisherAmerican Society of Civil Engineers
    titleReliability Indices for Water Supply Systems
    typeJournal Paper
    journal volume113
    journal issue4
    journal titleJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
    identifier doi10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9496(1987)113:4(563)
    treeJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management:;1987:;Volume ( 113 ):;issue: 004
    contenttypeFulltext
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