Development of an Inexact Fuzzy Robust Programming Model for Integrated Evacuation Management under Uncertainty

Abstract

Evacuation management for large crowds after events involves a number of processes and factors with socioeconomic and environmental implications. These processes and factors, as well as their interactions, are associated with a variety of uncertainties. In this study, an inexact fuzzy robust programming model for evacuation management (IFR-EM) has been developed for supporting the management of event-related evacuation under uncertainty. Through the proposed method, parameters presented as interval numbers and/or fuzzy boundary intervals are acceptable as uncertain inputs, such that the uncertainties can be directly communicated into the optimization process. Programming robustness can thus be highly enhanced. The proposed method is applied to a case study and then solved through an interactive method. A number of decision alternatives could be directly generated based on results of the model, which might be favored by decision makers because of the increased flexibility and applicability. Results of the IFR-EM model can reflect a compromise between optimality and stability of the study system, and are also useful for gaining insights into trade-offs among objectives of system efficiency, environmental protection, and economic cost. Also, the results suggest that the proposed IFR-EM method can explicitly address complexities and uncertainties in evacuation management systems and is applicable to practical evacuation problems.